Late-Stage Congestion: Reading Your Pipeline to Spot Phantom Commits

Why late-stage congestion is so dangerous

On most sales dashboards, the late stages of the pipeline look reassuring.

There is plenty of value in “Proposal”, “Negotiation” and “Commit”. Coverage against target looks strong. On the surface, the quarter seems under control.

Then month-end arrives, and a painful pattern repeats:

• Deals you were “certain” would close are pushed out.
  
  
• Forecast numbers are hastily revised.
  
  
• Finance and the board start questioning the credibility of the whole process.

The root cause is often late-stage congestion – too many deals sitting in the final stages for too long, with too little real momentum. In amongst that congestion lurk phantom commits: opportunities that look like near-certain revenue but have little real evidence behind them.

In our pillar blog, How to Spot Pipeline Imbalance Across Stages (Before It Wrecks Your Quarter), we look at imbalance across the whole funnel using Value, Volume and Velocity. You can read it here: https://www.mentorgroup.com/sales-training-insights/how-to-spot-pipeline-imbalance-across-stages

This supporting article zooms in on the back end of the funnel: how to read your late-stage data and spot phantom commits before they wreck your forecast.

What are phantom commits?

A phantom commit is an opportunity that is:

• Forecast as a highly likely win (often in “Commit” or equivalent).
  
  
• Included as part of the plan to hit target.
  
  
• But lacking the buyer evidence that would justify that confidence.

On paper, the deal looks promising. In reality, it may be missing:

• A clearly identified and engaged decision-maker.
  
  
• A compelling, agreed business case.
  
  
• A realistic mutual action plan and close date.
  
  
• Clarity on legal, commercial or procurement steps.

Phantom commits are dangerous because they occupy your most trusted space in the forecast while being no more certain than much earlier-stage deals. They distort late-stage Value, give false comfort, and lead to last-minute surprises.

How late-stage congestion shows up in your numbers

To spot late-stage congestion, start with the same three lenses used in the pillar blog – Value, Volume and Velocity – and apply them specifically to your final stages.

For your closing stages (for example, Proposal, Negotiation, Commit), look at:

• Value
  • Total value sitting in each late stage.
    
    
  • The proportion of your total pipeline and total forecast this represents.
    
    
  • Average deal size in these stages versus earlier ones.
• Volume
  • Number of opportunities in each late stage.
    
    
  • The ratio of late-stage opportunities to those entering mid-funnel.
    
    
  • The number of deals that have slipped (had their close date moved out at least once).
• Velocity
  • Average and median days spent in each late stage.
    
    
  • How many deals have been in a late stage for more than twice the typical duration.
    
    
  • The average number of times close dates have been changed.

Red flags in the numbers include:

• A very high proportion of total pipeline value concentrated in one or two late stages.
  
  
• A growing number of opportunities where the close date has been moved multiple times.
  
  
• Late stages with significantly longer average duration than a year ago, without a clear external explanation.
  
  
• Big gaps between forecast value from late stages and actual closed revenue over recent quarters.

When you see those patterns, you are not looking at a strong back end of the funnel. You are looking at a late-stage traffic jam.

Deal-level red flags in late stages

Numbers tell you where to look. The next step is to inspect the deals themselves.

When you review late-stage opportunities, pay attention to:

• Stakeholder clarity
  • Is there a named decision-maker, and have they been involved in discussions?
    
    
  • Are you still mostly talking to a single champion who is “confident” it will get signed?
• Mutual action plan
  • Is there a documented, realistic sequence of steps to signature, agreed with the customer?
    
    
  • Or is the plan essentially: “They’ll get it signed by end of month”?
• Business case and value
  • Is there a clear articulation of value and impact that the customer has validated?
    
    
  • Or is the proposal mainly a description of features and pricing?
• Commercial and legal progress
  • Have procurement, legal and finance been engaged?
    
    
  • Are key terms (volume, discounts, contract length, risk areas) understood and addressed?
• Activity patterns
  • Is there recent, meaningful activity – meetings, workshops, document reviews – between now and the proposed close date?
    
    
  • Or has there been a long gap, with the opportunity kept in “Commit” on the basis of verbal reassurance?

The more late-stage opportunities lack these elements, the more likely it is that your “commit” column is full of phantoms.

A four-step late-stage “traffic report”

To get a clear view of late-stage congestion, run a focused “traffic report” for the current and next quarter:

1. Segment your late-stage deals
   • Separate opportunities into three groups:
     • Group A: Close date this month.
       
       
     • Group B: Close date this quarter (but not this month).
       
       
     • Group C: Close date beyond this quarter.

2. Check the basics
   For each group, look at:
   • Number of opportunities and total value.
     
     
   • Average days in current stage.
     
     
   • Number of times the close date has already slipped.
3. Apply a quick evidence filter
   • Sample a subset of deals in each group (or all, if numbers allow).
     
     
   • For each, ask:
     • Do we have a named decision-maker?
       
       
     • Is there a mutual action plan with dates?
       
       
     • Has legal/procurement been engaged where relevant?
       
       
     • Is there meaningful activity scheduled between now and the close date?

4. Reclassify ruthlessly
   • Any deal that fails the evidence test should be challenged.
     
     
   • Some should move back a stage or have their close date pushed out.
     
     
   • Some should be removed from “commit” altogether until the right conditions are met.

This exercise is uncomfortable the first time you do it. Your forecast will usually shrink. But the number that remains will be far more honest, and you’ll have a clearer view of which deals genuinely deserve late-stage status.

How different teams should respond to late-stage congestion

Once you can see late-stage congestion and phantom commits clearly, the response needs to be coordinated.

• CRO and senior leadership
  • Set transparent criteria for what qualifies as a late-stage “commit” opportunity.
    
    
  • Tie forecast reviews to evidence, not just confidence.
    
    
  • Use historic data to challenge overly optimistic assumptions.
• Sales managers
  • Turn late-stage pipeline reviews into working sessions, not update meetings.
    
    
  • Ask evidence-based questions: “Who signs this, and when did we last speak to them?”, “What happens if the date slips?”
    
    
  • Coach reps on managing commercial, legal and stakeholder risk earlier.
• RevOps / Sales Operations
  • Build reports that highlight slipped deals, aged late-stage opportunities and gaps between late-stage forecast and actuals.
    
    
  • Work with managers to clean out clearly dead or unrealistic late-stage deals.
• Enablement and L&D
  • Treat late-stage congestion as a sign that teams may need support in proposal strategy, negotiation, value articulation and closing conversations.
    
    
  • Design practice scenarios that mirror real late-stage deals, so reps can rehearse how to secure commitment and manage risk before they’re in front of the customer.

Connecting late-stage congestion to whole-pipeline imbalance

Late-stage congestion rarely starts at the end. It is often the downstream effect of problems earlier in the funnel:

• Weak qualification means poor-fit deals make it all the way to proposal.
  
  
• Incomplete discovery leads to proposals that don’t fully speak to the customer’s real priorities.
  
  
• A lack of clear next steps in the mid-funnel creates last-minute scrambles at the point of signature.

That’s why it’s helpful to view late-stage congestion as one element of a broader pattern of pipeline imbalance.

For a full view of how Value, Volume and Velocity can be used to spot imbalance across every stage – and how classic patterns like the “illusion of abundance”, mid-funnel drop-off and late-stage traffic jams fit together – read our pillar blog here: https://www.mentorgroup.com/sales-training-insights/how-to-spot-pipeline-imbalance-across-stages

FAQ summary: late-stage congestion and phantom commits

1. What is late-stage congestion?
   Late-stage congestion occurs when too many opportunities are stuck in the final stages of the pipeline for too long, often with limited real progress. On reports, this looks like strong late-stage coverage, but in reality many of those deals are unlikely to close on time – if at all.
2. What are phantom commits?
   Phantom commits are opportunities that appear in “Commit” or equivalent forecast categories but lack the buyer evidence to justify that confidence. They often have no clear decision-maker involvement, no realistic mutual action plan and unresolved commercial or legal issues.
3. Which metrics help me spot late-stage congestion?
   The most useful metrics are:
   - Total value and volume in late stages.
   - Average and median days spent in each late stage.
   - The number of times close dates have been moved.
   - The gap between late-stage forecast value and actual closed revenue over recent periods.
4. How can I quickly test whether a late-stage deal really belongs in “Commit”?
   Ask a small set of evidence-based questions: Do we have a named decision-maker? Is there a mutually agreed plan to signature? Are legal and procurement engaged where needed? Is there meaningful activity scheduled between now and the close date? If you cannot answer “yes” to most of these, the deal probably does not belong in “Commit” yet.
5. Why do phantom commits appear in the first place?
   Common reasons include over-optimism, pressure to show coverage, inconsistent stage definitions, and a culture that rewards pipeline size more than pipeline honesty. Without clear criteria and regular evidence-based reviews, optimistic assumptions easily creep into the forecast.
6. Who is responsible for fixing late-stage congestion?
   Responsibility is shared. Sales leadership must set clear standards for late-stage classification and forecasts; managers must challenge and coach deal strategy; RevOps must surface the right metrics and clean data; Enablement and L&D must address the skill gaps that lead to weak late-stage execution.
7. Where can I learn more about spotting pipeline imbalance across all stages?
   For a broader view of pipeline health and the patterns of imbalance that affect each stage of the funnel, read our pillar blog, How to Spot Pipeline Imbalance Across Stages (Before It Wrecks Your Quarter), here: https://www.mentorgroup.com/sales-training-insights/how-to-spot-pipeline-imbalance-across-stages